Unveiling the Global Supply – Demand Battle
I. Cobalt Powder Frenzy: DRC Export Halt + Global New Energy Rush
1. DRC Cuts Off 80% of Global Cobalt Supply
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) supplies 78% of the world’s cobalt. In February 2025, it suddenly announced a 4 – month cobalt raw material export suspension, slashing global cobalt supply by 26% (equivalent to a 30,000 – ton monthly shortfall). Global smelters faced a “raw material crisis,” with operating rates dropping to 58%. Small – to – medium enterprises even shut down, pushing cobalt powder spot prices up by ¥3,500/ton in one month — the biggest jump since 2024.
2. New Energy and 3C Products Trigger a Cobalt Scramble, Draining Stocks
Global new energy vehicle sales are set to rise 25% in 2025. Meanwhile, ternary lithium batteries (for EVs) and cobalt – acid batteries (for 3C devices) are fueling cobalt demand, which has surged past 150,000 tons. Once enough for 45 days, cobalt powder stocks now last only 28 days — a supply – demand imbalance that’s supercharging prices.
3. Hoarding and Long – Term Contracts Create a Price Spiral
The DRC’s export ban sparked panic. Traders hoarded over 30% of supplies, driving spot prices up 12%. To avoid future shocks, battery makers signed long – term contracts 3 months early, making long – term prices 8% higher than spot. This created a cycle: price hikes → more hoarding → even higher prices.
II. Tungsten Carbide Surge: Tight Global Mines + Booming Emerging Sectors
1. Quota Cuts and Closures Cripple Tungsten Supply
Over 60% of the world’s tungsten comes from a single key region. In 2025, first – round mining quotas were cut by 6.45%, and 30% of small mines closed due to stricter environmental rules. The price of black tungsten concentrate (raw material) hit ¥172,000/ton (a record high). By June, tungsten carbide powder prices soared to ¥364/kg.
2. Photovoltaics, Defense, and Drones Drive Explosive Demand
Tungsten carbide is no longer just for cutting tools! Photovoltaic tungsten wires (with >14% global penetration) are booming, with leading firms’ “billion – meter production lines” running nonstop. Defense (nuclear fusion) and drone industries are also snatching up tungsten carbide, with these three sectors accounting for 40% of new demand — emptying markets overnight.
3. Export Controls Spark a Global Stockpiling Spree
Major tungsten – exporting nations introduced “one – permit – per – order” rules. Fearing shortages, overseas buyers started hoarding 6 months early, pushing international prices 13% above domestic levels. In Q1 2025, tungsten carbide export prices jumped 45%, and overseas orders made up 35% of sales — foreign demand added more fuel to the fire.
III. Will Prices Keep Rising? How Should Companies Respond?
1. Short – Term: High Volatility as Gaps Persist
- Cobalt Powder: The DRC’s export ban will last until Q3 2025, creating a 32,000 – ton global gap. Prices will swing between ¥260–¥280/kg.
- Tungsten Carbide Powder: With a 15,000 – ton raw material gap and peak photovoltaic demand, prices may test ¥380/kg.
2. Long – Term: A Race Between Relocation and Innovation
- Cobalt: Firms are shifting production to Indonesia (with top players already building plants). By 2026, new capacity could ease supply pressures.
- Tungsten Carbide: Watch out for silicon carbide cutting tools (already replacing 20% of tungsten carbide). Companies must pivot to high – end products (e.g., nano – grade tungsten carbide, which boosts profits by 50%).
3. Strategies for Survival: Secure Supply + Upgrade Tech
- Short – Term: Lock in supplies with long – term contracts or use futures to hedge price risks.
- Long – Term: Invest in R & D for high – end products (e.g., high – purity cobalt for semiconductors, tungsten for nuclear fusion). Use technology to beat cost pressures.
This price surge is driven by regional policies, global demand, and capital games. For companies worldwide, success means understanding “why supplies are tight” and “who’s buying more” — then either securing supply chains or accelerating innovation. Only then can they thrive in this resource storm.
(Data sources: Mysteel, global industry reports.)